Does the latest dire opinion poll mean it’s all over for the Conservatives?

The latest YouGov public opinion poll has caught some attention as it shows that the Tories are supported by a mere 20 per cent of voters. This is the lowest showing since Rishi Sunak took over from Liz Truss at a time when her dismal performance had forced her out after 49 days in office. Thus, to borrow one of Sunak’s current catchphrases, the party is back at square one – and the Sunak bounce has now disappeared.

The Labour Party, at 47 per cent, thus enjoys a commanding lead of near-unprecedented proportions in recent times. But of course, this is only one poll, and it stands in contrast with another one earlier this week that put the Labour lead at a (relatively) vulnerable 13.5 percentage points. Also, things might change by the next election, and the voters are volatile. That said, some things are fairly clear even now...